CQ Politics -- This race is a toss-up!

CQ Politics reports Key House Races Shift in Democrats' Favor. No Kidding!

"Connecticut’s 4th (New Rating: No Clear Favorite. Previous Rating: Leans Republican). Rep. Christopher Shays ’ ability to withstand strong Democratic challenges even in unfavorable national climates led CQ Politics initially to rate this race as Leans Republican, but former investment banker Jim Himes is expected to present a serious challenge that will be aided by coattails from the presidential race. Diane Farrell, the former first selectwoman of Westport, was a strong candidate against Shays in 2004 and 2006, losing by less than 5 points each time. Turnout was relatively low in this southwestern district’s largest city, Bridgeport, in 2006 but should be higher in 2008. Thirty percent of the city’s residents are black and increased turnout for presumed Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama could boost the Democratic ticket down ballot and help push Himes to a win. Both candidates are well funded for the contest; each raised more than $2 million as of June 30. Shays reported $1.7 million on hand by the end of June while Himes had $1.4 million by the same date."