Hanging by a thread?

If you're Congressman Chris Shays, you're probably not having a fun summer.

For the third cycle in a row you're fighting for your life, this time as the last Republican Congressman in New England. Besides the heat of campaign season, (yeah, it's hot out there), you're facing a Presidential voting cycle in which the Democrats now control Congress, an Obama wave threatens, and your opponent is a younger, well-funded and in many ways more attractive challenger.

On your side you have 21 years in Washington, D.C., more campaign money, a reputation as a moderate bi-partisan, (which this blog will challenge), generally favorable media coverage, and perhaps a secret weapon in Joe Lieberman.

But the fact is it won't take much to topple the incumbent, and both Himes and Shays knows it. Will Chris Shays soon be following Nancy Johnson into retirement? Could be. And once again Connecticut matters in the national political equation.

Here are the SOTS' election results from the last two contests. Readers can do their own math.

2004 4th CD Results:
Shays 152,493 52.43%
Farrell 138,333 47.57%

2006 4th CD Results:
Shays 106,510 50.96%
Farrell 99,450 47.58%

This contest will obviously hinge on turn-out.